Archive for the 'Science' Category
(Chronologically Listed)
Yellowstone Really Needs To Go Back To Sleep
Something to keep an eye on…
Seems that there has been a stream of small quakes underneath the lake at Yellowstone.
Quakes under Yellowstone are nothing new. Yellowstone is the shell of a super-volcano, a caldera as it is called. It has erupted massively in the past and will do so again at some future date that we don’t know.
These quakes are all fairly shallow and in more or less the same spot. In addition they are in the area of the new magma dome under the lake. Last but not least, the traces from the seismic monitors have begun to take on the tell tale signs of harmonic tremors according to some folks on the web. This is an indication that magma is moving within the plumbing under the earth.
This likely means that a bit of normal volcano house keeping is going on, in fact many volcanos go through periods like this and no eruption ever takes place. Likewise there is an non-zero chance that the Yellowstone caldera could be starting to build up magma for an eruption several weeks or several centuries from now.
If you are feeling geo-nerdy, you can head over to the web siesmic monitoring page here, and look for the one labeled LKWY_SHZ_US
Map of where the quakes are popping below, click on image for the most recent map from the USGS.
Update - US News has a post on the subject here.
The “Gore Effect” documented
The slightly tongue-in-cheek term “The Gore Effect” — meaning an abrupt change of local weather towards intense cold when or after Al Gore (prophet of Anthropogenic Global Warming) visits that location — became so-named after a few incidents several years ago (see the link above). These days, it’s generally applied whenever any Warmist group holds an event and is suddenly faced with unseasonably cold weather (e.g., the Global Warming Cruise aboard an icebreaker that subsequently got stuck in sea ice).
Now Steve McIntyre, famed debunker of the Mann Hockey Stick graph, points out that his own home town of Toronto, Canada, has experienced the Gore Effect first-hand. Here’s a graph of annual snowfall in Toronto:
As you can see, Al Gore visited Toronto in 2007 — three times, as it turned out. Now, 2008 has produced more snowfall in Toronto than any year in the past 120 years. Be sure to read Steve’s whole article for details (and photos!). ..bruce w..
Some seasonal cheer for you
Courtesy of The Daily Bayonet, who got it from Jammie Wearing Fool:
Heh.
UPDATE: And here, courtesy of Dave Barry, is striking scientific proof that white people — particularly Southern white people — are inherently rhythmically challenged:
..bruce w..
Nuclear criticality accidents over the past 60+ years
I’m trying to figure out where I ran across the link for this report (PDF, 3.7 MB); it was sometime in the past few weeks and was most likely from one of the science blogs I review daily, but I just can’t remember where.
The report (”A Review of Criticality Accidents”) details sixty (60) criticality accidents, that is, accidents where radioactive material that was being processed achieve critical mass sufficient to discharge a burst of radiation. These date from 1945 to 1999 and include America, Soviet/Russian, Japanese and British incidents.
The earliest is one of the most famous. It occurred at Los Alamos on August 21, 1945. From the report:
In the first accident, a critical assembly was being created by hand stacking 4.4 kg tungsten carbide bricks around the plutonium core. Figure 41 shows a reenactment* of the configuration with about half of the tungsten blocks in place. The lone experimenter [Harry Daghlian] was moving the final brick over the assembly for a total reflector of 236 kg when he noticed from the nearby neutron counters that the addition of this brick would make the assembly supercritical. As he withdrew his hand, the brick slipped and fell onto the center of the assembly, adding sufficient reflection to make the system superprompt critical. A power excursion occurred. He quickly pushed off the final brick and proceeded to unstack the assembly. His dose was estimated as 510 rem from a yield of 1016 fissions. He died 28 days later.
An almost-identical accident involving the exact same plutonium core occurred at Los Alamos the following year, exposing several people. The person working with the plutonium core, Louis Slotin, died nine days later. And, as I’ve just discovered, I have a family connection to that core, which became known as the “Demon core“. It was used in the Able bomb in the Crossroads (Bikini Atoll) nuclear tests — where my father, all of 22 years old, was one of the sailors who went on board the target ships after the blasts (Able and Baker) to survey damage.
Here’s another criticality accident, this one in Russia in 1958:
After each experiment was completed, written procedures called for the solution to be drained through a line to favorable geometry 6 liter bottles. This process was to be repeated until the entire experiment vessel had been drained. After filling some of these 6 liter bottles, the experimenters judged the remaining solution volume to be highly subcritical. It was then decided to circumvent the routine, tedious draining process and manually pour the remaining solution of 418 g U(90)/ l from the vessel (there are no records of the molarity of the solution). To accomplish this, the neutron source and its guide tube were removed and then the vessel was unbolted from its stand. Then three of the experimenters manually lifted the vessel and began to move it (in order to directly pour the contents into containers) when the excursion occurred.
They immediately noticed a flash (due to Cherenkov radiation), and simultaneously, fissile solution was violently ejected, reaching the ceiling about 5 m above. The three experimenters dropped the vessel and, along with a fourth experimenter who was located about 2.5 m away from the excursion, went immediately to the change room, showered, and were transported to the hospital. The combination of additional reflection from the three experimenters and the change in the geometry of the solution volume was sufficient to cause the system to exceed prompt critical. The small neutron background, estimated at only 100 neutrons per second, apparently also contributed to delayed initiation and thus to increased excursion energetics.
Based on fission product activity in the solution, the single–pulse yield was evaluated to be approximately 2 × 1017 fissions. Total neutron and gamma absorbed doses were estimated at 6,000 ± 2,000 rad for the three who lifted the tank and 600 rad for the coworker at 2.5 m. The three massively exposed workers died in five to six days. The fourth experimenter survived but had acute radiation sickness, followed by continuing health problems. She developed cataracts and lost sight in both eyes some years later. Due to the severe consequences of this accident, the experimental apparatus was disassembled and the critical experiment program at the plant was terminated.
Something to keep in mind the next time you watch “The Simpsons”. ..bruce w..
This is so on target
This guy pretty much nails it:
Flying still seems magical to me. Hat tip to Bad Astronomy. ..bruce w..
The vast and widespread consequences of global warming
It makes you wonder how earth (and humanity) ever survived the Medieval Warm Period or the Holocene Maximum:
Hat tip to Instapundit. ..bruce w..
Photos of distant worlds
[Thanks to Ace of Spades for the link!]
Over the past decade or so, astronomers have discovered over 300 extra-solar planets, that is, planets orbiting stars other than our Sun. However, these discoveries have largely been indirect, due to the planet transiting the star it orbits, or variations in the radial velocity of the star.
But now we have honest-to-goodness photographs of planets orbiting other stars.
The first here is the planet Fomalhaut b, orbiting the star Fomalhaut:
Fomalhaut itself has been blocked out in order for the telescope to take this photograph. The rays spreading out from the star are a processing artifact, but the planet is real, as is the dust ring.
Here’s the second planetary system, HR 8799:
The dots labeled ‘b’ and ‘c’ are two planets orbiting the star. Just too cool for words. Hat tip to Slashdot. ..bruce w..
At the mountains of madness
Every now and then, I see a news story that reminds me uncomfortably of some fiction I’ve read. Here’s one such story:
Buried Antarctic Mountain Range Shouldn’t Exist at All
An Antarctic mountain range that rivals the Alps in elevation will be probed this month by an expedition of scientists using airborne radar and other Information Age tools to virtually “peel away” more than 2.5 miles (4 kilometers) of ice covering the peaks.
One of the mysteries of the mountain range is that current evidence suggests that it “shouldn’t be there” at all.
The researchers hope to find answers there to some basic questions about the nature of the southernmost continent, including the massive East Antarctic Ice Sheet.
For instance, it is unclear how Antarctica came to be ice-covered in the first place, and whether that process began millions of years ago in the enigmatic Gamburtsev mountain range.
Of course, for anyone who (like me) is an H. P. Lovecraft fan, your first reaction is, “Oh no! The Mountains of Madness!” Lovecraft’s 1936 story, “At the Mountains of Madness“, is one of his best (if you like Lovecraft, that is).
Of course, the mountains in Lovecraft’s story were a bit higher than this range:
Then, in about an hour and a half more, came that doubly excited message from Lake’s moving plane, which almost reversed my sentiments and made me wish I had accompanied the party:
“10:05 P.M. On the wing. After snowstorm, have spied mountain range ahead higher than any hitherto seen. May equal Himalayas, allowing for height of plateau. Probable Latitude 76¡ 15′, Longitude 113¡ 10′ E. Reaches far as can see to right and left. Suspicion of two smoking cones. All peaks black and bare of snow. Gale blowing off them impedes navigation.”
After that Pabodie, the men and I hung breathlessly over the receiver. Thought of this titanic mountain rampart seven hundred miles away inflamed our deepest sense of adventure; and we rejoiced that our expedition, if not ourselves personally, had been its discoverers. In half an hour Lake called us again:
“Moulton’s plane forced down on plateau in foothills, but nobody hurt and perhaps can repair. Shall transfer essentials to other three for return or further moves if necessary, but no more heavy plane travel needed just now. Mountains surpass anything in imagination. Am going up scouting in Carroll’s plane, with all weight out. You can’t imagine anything like this. Highest peaks must go over thirty-five thousand feet. Everest out of the running. Atwood to work out height with theodolite while Carroll and I go up. Probably wrong about cones, for formations look stratified. Possibly pre-Cambrian slate with other strata mixed in. Queer skyline effects - regular sections of cubes clinging to highest peaks. Whole thing marvelous in red-gold light of low sun. Like land of mystery in a dream or gateway to forbidden world of untrodden wonder. Wish you were here to study.”
Guillermo del Toro (Oscar-nominated director of Pan’s Labyrinth) really wants to film it, but as he notes, it has neither a love interest nor a happy ending, and so Hollywood isn’t all that keen on it. And, of course, since he’s now doing The Hobbit and its sequel, he’s tied up for the next several years anyway.
Still, you can buy a ‘radio theater’ adaptation of the story from the H. P. Lovecraft Historical Society. ..bruce w..
Artic Sea Ice On The Rebound
Over the summer the news was that troops of environmental activists were parading through the northwest passage to draw attention to the fact that it was ice free. This was supposed to imply that that run away, man made global warming was wrecking the arctic.
In reality most of these expeditions ended locked in the ice and withdrawing in failure, though you would not know it via the press releases.
In fact, the reduction in sea ice in the arctic was more likely caused by an unusual wind pattern during the early parts of 2008 that shoved the floating ice pack around, opening up some gaps that the global warming pharisees mistook for a sign.
Thanks to a number of factors, including reduced solar output, the northern hemisphere is stepping up for a good old fashioned cold winter. To kick things off, the sea ice in the arctic is growing rapidy. From wattsupwiththat.com:
Arctic sea ice now 28.7% higher than this date last year - still climbing
10/14/2008 7,064,219 square kilometers
10/14/2007 5,487,656 square kilometersA difference of: 1,576,563 square kilometers, now in fairness, 2008 was a leap year, so to avoid that criticism, the value of 6,857,188 square kilometers can be used which is the 10/13/08 value, for a difference of 1,369,532 sq km. Still not too shabby at 24.9 %. The one day gain between 10/13/08 and 10/14/08 of 3.8% is also quite impressive.
Meanwhile, the anemic sun decided to finally toss up a small sunspot cluster, labeled 1005 of the new cycle 24. This might be a signal that our local star is coming off vacation and might start putting out the energy we need to keep warm.
The sea is not the only place where the quiet sun is having an impact. From the Alaska Daily News, Bad weather was good for Alaska glaciers:
Two hundred years of glacial shrinkage in Alaska, and then came the winter and summer of 2007-2008. Unusually large amounts of winter snow were followed by unusually chill temperatures in June, July and August.
“In mid-June, I was surprised to see snow still at sea level in Prince William Sound,” said U.S. Geological Survey glaciologist Bruce Molnia. “On the Juneau Icefield, there was still 20 feet of new snow on the surface of the Taku Glacier in late July. At Bering Glacier, a landslide I am studying, located at about 1,500 feet elevation, did not become snow free until early August. “In general, the weather this summer was the worst I have seen in at least 20 years.”
Never before in the history of a research project dating back to 1946 had the Juneau Icefield witnessed the kind of snow buildup that came this year. It was similar on a lot of other glaciers too.
So while the current theme is that the earth is warming up, I think the more credible concern might be that we are cooling off. For most of humanity, being a bit warmer is actually welcome, where as the kind of chill that has happened in the past could be very dangerous for crops and food production.
One thing is for sure, this year’s version of “Deadliest Catch” should be a good one to watch. Some of my favorite segments include ice breaking on ships like F/V Northwestern.
Cargo of doom
The following news item from the Long War Journal reads like the start of a Tom Clancy novel. It talks about an Iranian cargo ship hijacked by Somali pirates. And then the pirates start dying (emphasis mine):
The MV Iran Deyanat was brought to Eyl, a sleepy fishing village in northeastern Somalia, and was secured by a larger gang of pirates - 50 onboard and 50 onshore. Within days, pirates who had boarded the ship developed strange health complications, skin burns and loss of hair. Independent sources tell The Long War Journal that a number of pirates have also died. “Yes, some of them have died. I do not know exactly how many but the information that I am getting is that some of them have died,” Andrew Mwangura, Director of the East African Seafarers’ Assistance Program, said Friday when reached by phone in Mombasa.
News about the illness and the toxic cargo quickly reached Garowe, seat of the government for the autonomous region of Puntland. Angered over the wave of piracy and suspicious about the Iranian ship, authorities dispatched a delegation led by Minister of Minerals and Oil Hassan Allore Osman to investigate the situation on September 4. Osman also confirmed to The Long War Journal that during the six days he negotiated with the pirates members of the syndicate had become sick and died. “That ship is unusual,” he said. “It is not carrying a normal shipment.”
Go read the whole thing. Hat tip to In From The Cold. ..bruce w..