Archive for October, 2008
- Democrats: 488,575 (54.1% of “active registered voters”; 63.3% of MIBs returned)
- Republicans: 465,869 (52.2% of “active registered voters”; 65.0% of MIBs returned)
- Unaffiliated: 336,511 (41.3% of “active registered voters”; 41.3% of MIBs returned)
- Failing to realize that once you have requested a mail-in ballot, you cannot change your mind and go to the polls instead — you have to use the mail-in ballot;
- Putting an X or check mark in each candidate/issue selection box, instead of filling it in completely with blue or blank ink;
- Failing to sign the “affidavit of voter” section located (on mine, at least) underneath the envelope flap;
- Failing to mail the ballot in time so that it is delivered to your county recorder’s office no later than 7:00 pm on Tuesday, November 4th (date of postmark doesn’t count; note that with some Colorado counties, you can’t drop the ballot off at the polls on election day, either);
- Failing to put the necessary postage ($0.59) on the ballot envelope;
- Failing to include a copy of your driver’s license or other valid state ID if you are one of those 35,000 newly registered voters who requested a mail-in ballot.
Voter registration and early voting in Colorado [updated]
[UPDATED 10/31/08 - 1452 MDT]
The Colorado Secretary of State’s office has just released updated figures (Excel spreadsheet; PDF file) as of 4 am this morning for early voting and mail-in ballots. Here are the totals:
So as of last night, the Democrats had a 23,000 edge in early voting over the Republicans — but that difference equals just 6.7% of the total unaffiliated vote to date. So, again, it comes down to how the unaffiliated are breaking for Obama and McCain.
Note that the Republicans are still slightly ahead of the Democrats in returning mail-in ballots (MIBs), while both are quite a ways ahead of unaffiliateds returning MIBs. So it not only comes down to how the unaffiliateds vote, it also comes down to which ones do a better job of filling out and returning their their mail-in ballots: McCain supporters or Obama supporters.
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[ORIGINAL POST]
Rich Lowry over at the National Review Online reports that the McCain camp has given up on Colorado:
Even though Obama hasn’t had the big double digit leads in CO he has had in other states, the McCain camp considers it gone (citing early voting and the Dem registration effort in the state).
This makes no sense for two reasons: first, the “unaffiliated” voter registration is so large (roughly 90% of the Dem and Rep registrations) as to dominate the actual outcome; second; the “early voting edge” of the Democrats is actually pretty small.
According to the Colorado Sec’y of State office, here are the relevant figures for this election cycle:
# of “active registered voters”: Dems = 895,339; Reps = 885,348; Unaffiliated = 805,610.
In other words, there are almost as many unaffiliated voters as there are either registered Democrats or Republicans.
As for the early vote “edge”, here are the latest results from the CO SofS office:
early in-person voting as of 10/27: Dems = 63,580; Reps = 51,903; Unaffiliated = 45,164.
mail-in ballots as of 10/27: Dems = 251,409; Reps = 247,709; Unaffiliated = 151,905.
total early votes as of 10/27: Dems = 314,939; Reps = 299612; Unaffiliated = 197069.
The Democrats have an edge of just 15,327 votes so far in early voting, while nearly 200,000 unaffiliated voters have already voted as well. Furthermore, Republicans are actually doing slightly better (by 1.3%) at returning mail-in ballots than the Democrats (44% vs. 42.7%), while both groups are doing much better than the unaffiliated voters (only 31.1% returned as of 10/27).
So the real issue in Colorado is not Democrats vs. Republicans; it’s how the unaffiliated voters (roughly 31% of all active registered voters) break. Now, it may be that the McCain camp has some polling data indicating how those voters are breaking, and that may be the reason for their withdrawal, but the talk about registration and early voting of Democrats is just silly.
A final note. Most of the figures I’ve cited above are in reference to what the Colorado Secretary of State’s office deems “active, registered voters”. Among those listed as “inactive” on the spreadsheet they provide, Republicans actually have a 20,000-voter lead over Democrats (178,522 to 158,105), which means that overall, there are more registered Republicans than registered Democrats in Colorado.
It strikes me that the real problem the Republicans have faced in Colorado is a lack of funds to sway independents and to get out the vote. And they may well lose Colorado because of that. ..bruce w..
More problems w/Colorado mail-in ballots
In my earlier post, I noted several potential problems with the Colorado mail-in ballots (which have been requested by 62% of “active, registered voters” in Colorado). Today’s Rocky Mountain News reports yet another potential problem with these ballots:
More than 35,000 newly registered Colorado voters could see their mail ballots tossed out because of confusion over the need to include a copy of their ID with their votes.
The state requires county clerks to verify the identification of all new voters. Often, it’s as simple as comparing a driver’s license number on a voter registration form to the state’s motor vehicle database.
But when that check runs into trouble - in cases, for example, when the license number is copied down incorrectly - county clerks want to see the identification.
This year has seen an unprecedented surge in voter registrations.
And according to the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office, as of Monday 35,620 first-time voters whose identity had not been verified requested mail ballots.
Those voters should have been instructed to photocopy their driver’s license or other identification and include it when they mailed back their ballots. If they fail to, the ballots will be treated as though they are provisional. That means county clerks will attempt after the election to verify the identity of the voter. If they can’t, the ballots will be disqualified.
There were indeed instructions in my ballot package to include a copy of my driver’s license or other ID if I were newly registered (I wasn’t, so I didn’t).
[UPDATE] Here’s an earlier news article in the Colorado Independent indicating that many of the newly registered people who signed up (via ACORN and elsewhere) for a mail-in ballot may have failed to properly mark their registration form — and may not get mail-in ballots, period. [END UPDATE]
So, let’s summarize all the ways in which a mail-in ballot (again, which 62% of all active, registered voters reqested) could be invalidated:
I suspect there’s going to be a bit of a mess on the day after Election day, particularly if there are any close vote counts in the major races. ..bruce w..
Caithness The Beautiful
For the past two days I have been in the far north of Scotland, in a county called Caithness. It is as far north as you can go on the island of Britain without a boat.
Caithness is the land of my Henderson ancestors, and in particular the area around a village called Dunbeath.
First and foremost, I have to thank the Dunbeath Heritage Centre and Preservation Trust, who run a fantastic museum in the village of Dunbeath. They have a robust collection of genealogy information for the families of that area, but that is just the start.
Dunbeath has been a center of civilization for at least a thousand years, and probably quite a bit longer. The Museum preserves this history, and serves as a focal point for the research and discussion around the continuing archeological finds. It seems the history of this area is still be discovered, and there are significant digs durning the summers, and local researchers such as George Bethune and Meg Sinclair are helping lead the efforts.
On the the photos….
First off, this is the Heritage Centre, which is housed in the old school house.
Dunbeath Harbor
Also there is a walking trail along the Dunbeath river, which features prominently in several books, such as Highland River, by Neil M. Gunn (who it turns out is a cousin).
The path winds up towards the headwaters of the river, and past many historical sites.
Dunbeath sits on the rugged Caithness coast, which seems to be naturally photogenic
Dunbeath is also flanked by the northern most mountains in Scotland, and thanks to the recent cold snap they are wreathed in snow. This one is named Scaraben
Last but not least for me, is a view from the old graveyard in Berriedale, where several of my ancestors are buried
For more / somewhat larger versions of these pictures, I have uploaded them to another area of the site, just click on the name to view.
Daily Financial Moment Of Clarity
From the Far Eastern Economic Review:
I’d say that’s about right
Potential problems with Colorado mail-in ballots [corrected]
UPDATE (10/31/08): I’ve got a new post, citing a Rocky Mountain News article pointing out yet another problem specifically for those newly registered Colorado voters who requested a mail-in ballot.
IMPORTANT CORRECTION (10/30/08): As per the comments by gailculp below, not all Colorado counties have drop-off spots for mail-in ballots. So if you are using a mail-in ballot, I would guess you should get it into the mail no later than Friday to guarantee delivery by next Tuesday.
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Over 60% of “active, registered voters” in Colorado (as defined by the Colorado Secretary of State) have requested mail-in ballots. With a week to go until Election Day, only about 40% of those mail-in ballots have been returned as of 8 pm last night (here’s an Excel spreadsheet and here’s a PDF printout of that sheet). The other 60%, so far, have not.
I was one of those delinquent individuals. However, I dug out my mail-in ballot today and filled it out. Having done that, I see several potential problems with the mail-in ballots.
First, to mark each choice on the ballot, you have to completely fill in (using blue or black ink) a rather large (1/4″ long by 3/16″ high) rectangle. No Xs, no check marks, no pencil. I suspect this is to support computer reading of the ballot, but unless voters are paying close attention to the instructions (on a separate sheet), they are likely to simply put an X in the box — and the ballot won’t count.
Second, the voter is supposed to sign in a specific location on the back of the ballot envelope (an Affidavit of Voter). Again, this is pointed out in the separate instruction sheet — and, frankly, on the front of the envelope, too. However, the instruction sheet shows the area to sign as being right under the text of the “Affidavit of Voter”. It’s not — it’s above and to the right of the “Affidavit of Voter”, and underneath the envelope flap. That appears to be deliberate, since there is a portion of the envelope flap that can be pulled off to expose the signature. But it means that if the voter seals the envelope without seeing that location under the flap, s/he may well not realize that s/he has to sign the envelope — and the ballot won’t count.
Third, the mail-in ballot has to be received by the appropriate county clerk’s office by 7:00 pm on Election Day. Unlike tax returns, the postmark won’t matter; the ballot has to actually be delivered by that day. Note that in Douglas County (but not all Colorado counties) you can drop off the mail-in ballot at early voting locations — I will likely do that tomorrow [update: did it on 10/30]. But if you don’t pay attention, you may mail your ballot so late that it is not delivered by Election Day — and the ballot won’t count.
Fourth, the mail-in ballot requires $0.59 in postage, which is noted on the separate instructions sheet but not on the envelope itself. This means, of course, that if you don’t put the right amount of postage on the ballot, it won’t get delivered — and the ballot won’t count.
I know that the Obama campaign has been heavily pushing voting by mail (I’ve seen Google ads for it, even). But voters who requested mail-in ballots cannot change their minds and go vote at the regular polls on election day; they have to use their ballots. So far, Democrats and Republicans are about neck-and-neck (42.7% vs. 44%, respectively) as far as the ballots that have been returned. The unaffiliated voters — who are almost equal in number to the Democrats and Republicans (448,698 ballots requested, vs. 588,724 for the Democrats and 563,028 for the Republicans) are the real delinquents: only about 34% have returned their mail-in ballots as of last night.
I have no figures on how many of those ballots have processed and disqualified due to marking errors or lack of a signature. But if there are any tight races here in Colorado, I expect Florida- and Washington-type battles over marks, signatures, and post office delivery of mail-in ballots. Stay tuned. ..bruce w..
Praying For Global Warming [updated]
Snow in October?
I am currently in Scotland researching family history. After spending the weekend in Glasgow, it’s up to Caithness. My Henderson family is from the Dunbeath area, on the east coast of Scoland in the far north.
I drove north through Inverness in a fairly potent snowstorm. Seriously, if any of you have any global warming to spare, please send it to northern Scotland! The locals in Wick (where I am encamped at the marvelous Mackay’s Hotel) claim this is unusual in recent history, but in the 1700’s this would not have been so unusual.
(view out the front of the car as I drove north)
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Bruce Webster here. To show that Bruce Henderson’s report is not an isolated cold spot, here’s the weather report for the British Isles (hat tip to Samizdata):
National Forecast
Overview
Unseasonably cold with night frost and wintry showers.
This Evening and Tonight:
Unseasonably cold everywhere with a widespread frost tonight, especially inland. Sleety weather too across southeast England and northern Scotland, with some snow on higher ground. Occasional showers of hail or sleet near Irish Sea coasts. Gales across northeast Scotland.
Wednesday:
Remaining cold with thickening cloud, rain and hill snow spreading from the west to affect much of western Britain by the end of the afternoon. Fine but cold further east.
Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:
Cold and rather windy for the next few days. The stiff northeasterly wind bringing a mix of sunshine and showers. More persistent rain likely in the southeast at times.
Daily Financial Moment Of Clarity
Again from the wise mind of Anna Schwartz courtesy of the Wall Street Journal:
Sanity among the ruins
The new Despair.com catalog arrived today, and just in time:
and of course:
And there’s always the do-it-yourself page (click on the image for a larger view):
Should be an interesting week. ..bruce w..