Archive for January, 2008

27 Jan

Hypersonic Projects Emerging From Behind The Special Access Curtain

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The DoD has begun to discuss high level elements of a project to build a hypersonic UAV system, currently working under the name Falcon Blackswift. The details that have emerged thus far are quite tantalizing. From Wired:

According to the few details available on Blackswift, Lockheed Martin’s famed Skunk Works shop is the main contractor for the vehicle. DARPA, in fact, still isn’t talking about Blackswift; it’s using the HTV-3X designation. But HTV-3X is a departure from the previous Falcon program. Careful observers at last week’s DARPATech, like Bill Sweetman, noticed some important elements: “Key features - apparent from images snagged from DARPA video, and from other sources - include the fact that HTV-3X is an unmanned, fighter-sized aircraft.”

My friends and some readers of this blog know that back in the early 1990’s I had a fascination with suspected research activities into hypersonic reconnaissance aircraft that would, from time to time, overfly southern California. The secrecy around what was known in some circles as “Aurora” was at times laughable. One of the most recognizable traits of this platform would be a “skyquake”, an unusual tremor that had many of the same effects as the earthquakes we have all over California. From the SD Union Tribune about an event April 4th, 2007:

But to the astonishment of everyone, a quake wasn’t the culprit. Within hours, both the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla issued statements saying no earthquake had been detected.

Last week, USGS spokeswoman Stephanie Hanna said the agency stands by its initial conclusion.

“No, it wasn’t an earthquake,” she said. “We haven’t changed our minds about that.”

By noon on the day of the incident, The San Diego Union-Tribune was being inundated with e-mails from people wondering what could have caused the strange tremors.

“My garage door is double steel and it weighs about 500 lbs.,” a man in University City wrote. “It was rattling back and forth like a leaf in the wind for about 3 or 4 seconds.”

A Mission Beach resident compared the sensation to “somewhere in between an explosion and an earthquake.” A woman in Carmel Valley noted that the rattling was very distressing to her cats.

Windows would shake, lights would sway and there would be a distinct low frequency sound that would spook animals. This particular incident (April, 2007) was even more interesting because I was in IM Chat with one of my team who was in Encinitas at the time (I was about 12 miles away in Escondido). He IM’ed me that he was having an earthquake, though the ground here was not shaking, then several seconds later, the shaking passed over my house. Once again headed from the ocean towards points north east.

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These were a bit special in that the epicenter was never measured by their depth in the earth. Though seismometers would record them, they would not have typical earthquake wave patterns. In fact, the focus of the shaking also seemed to move in fairly direct lines towards Nevada. At something above mach 3 and decelerating.

The anomaly, whatever it was, also created a unique sound that could be identified while it was in transit over head, and would occasionally create a unique contrail that some observers attributed to it’s unusual engine design.

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After a while in the mid 1990’s these things stopped, either because whatever platform that created them was retired (it was always theorized Aurora was an experiment) or the equipment they had developed to suppress the shock waves, the noise and the contrails became more reliable.

With the failure of NRO’s next generation platform, FIA (Future Imagery Architecture), there may be renewed emphasis on something more flexible and more maintainable than a huge orbital platform.

Air breathing recon platforms have some advantages, such as no regular orbits and the ability to loiter over an area of interest for a much longer period of time.

With the Blackswift project, the DoD may finally ready to lift the veil on what they have been cooking up in their research labs the last 20 years or so when it comes to hypersonic vehicles. Frankly, I can’t wait.

[SuperMondo Video Update]

Of course YouTube has some CGI renderings of one of the designs buzzing around in animation form.

Bill Sweetman from Aviation Week also has posted about this project over the weekend on his blog:

More reports suggest that the FY2009 budget will indeed include money for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) hypersonic demonstrator, named Blackswift. It’s a $750 million program to produce a small unmanned demonstrator - F-16-size or smaller - that will be able to fly off a runway, get to Mach 6 or higher, decelerate and land under power, using relatively conventional fuel.

At $750M, they are doing some serious work in Palmdale (Skunk Works) and supporting facilities.

27 Jan

Brilliant. Just brilliant.

There’s a reason why we Americans still have an inferiority complex when it comes to British diction, erudition and (to a certain extent) humor:

Can you name one, even one member of the US Congress who could write and deliver a speech such as the one given by William Hague above? Sigh. Hat tip to Samizdata. ..bruce w..

24 Jan

When I see things like this…

…I wish that I had won the ‘geek lottery’ back in the dot.com boom:

DANGER, WILL ROBINSON!

The robot comes with working lights, a build-in sound system, and “over 500 voice tracks by Richard Tufeld, the voice of the original Robot. These are stored on an internal Compact Flash memory card to allow easy updates and customization.” (More features here.)

Just a mere $24,500! Sigh….

Hat tip to Instapundit. ..bruce w..

24 Jan

Stimulus Plan Includes Conforming Loan Limit Increase?

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I know that the president and the congress have been hard at work trying to perform some kind of economic defibrillation to make sure the US does not slide into recession. At present it looks like Uncle Sam is going to be handing out packages of “free money” to everyone in the country except rich people. What passes for rich may vary.

While we are still waiting for official word of what is and is not in there, this little nugget of doom surfaces (from Market Watch):

Mortgage industry cheers stimulus proposal

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Rates on jumbo loans got a lot more expensive after last summer’s credit crunch, and the mortgage and real-estate industries have been calling for an increase to the conforming loan limit as a way to help more borrowers obtain favorable mortgage rates.

On Thursday, they had reason to believe their wish would be granted when a proposed economic stimulus plan included a new conforming loan cap.

According to the proposal, the temporary limit for loans that can be bought by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, government-sponsored mortgage agencies, would be $729,750, or 125% of the median house price in the area.

The current conforming loan limit is $417,000; loans larger than that are considered jumbo and aren’t eligible to be financed through government-sponsored enterprises. This summer, when the private, secondary mortgage market no longer had an appetite to invest in these loans due to questions about risk, jumbo loans got much more expensive for borrowers.

Under the proposal, limits for Federal Housing Administration loans would also increase to the temporary level; the current FHA loan limit is $362,790.

So for those of you wondering why anyone would care. Houses in places like California usually cost more than the $417,000 “conforming” loan limit. This means people buying houses in California usually have to find alternative financing, and pay a steeper price to finance their homes.

One of the reasons that house prices got so high here is that people could get crazy financing for huge amounts without adequate resources to pay it back. So “dumb money” bid the price too high, and now no one can buy or sell because they can’t finance their homes.

So there are two ways to fix this - the healthy way would be to let the market forces bring the prices down to what people can reasonably pay. This is the best for everyone long term as it levels out who can live in California.

The second way would be to use the government backed entities, Fannie and Freddie, to prop up these insane prices. This is akin to providing an alcoholic with discount coupons for the corner liquor store. Not the best way to clean up.

A very bad idea all around that is going to perpetuate the problems that California faces.

23 Jan

150,000 hits and counting

Having taken about 15 months to get to the 100,000-hit mark — and reaching that largely due to our coverage of the San Diego fires in October 2007 — we’ve now reached the 150,000-hit mark in just 3 months. I’d like to think that it’s due to the quality and mix of our entries here.

However, it appears to be mostly due to this one post, though the reviews of “I Am Legend” and “Cloverfield” have contributed as well.

Sigh. But feel free to look around and hit the tipjar on the right. ..bruce w..