Archive for August, 2007

30 Aug

Remembering how things were

Brad DeLong, economics professor at UC Berkeley, has posted a great article reminding us just what life was like for most US citizens back in the early 20th century:

A quarter of American households in 1900 had boarders or lodgers (compared to two percent today). Half of American households in 1900 had fewer rooms than persons (compared to five percent today). A quarter of American households in 1900 had running water (compared to ninety-nine percent today). An eighth of American households in 1900 had flush toilets (compared to ninety-eight percent today). Less than a fifth had refrigerators, less than one-twelfth had gas or electric lights, less than one-twentieth had telephones or washing machines, and of course there were no radios or televisions or vacuum cleaners or central heating, to list just those major appliances that have greater than ninety percent coverage today….

The diets of workers in Homestead, Pennsylvania at the turn of the century were composed primarily of meat of widely variable quality, bread, butter, potatoes, oatmeal, and tea and milk–with luxuries such as sweets added in more or less regularly. We would find the diet somewhat monotonous (however, a lot of time and effort went into finding different ways to make potatoes). Almost always the first luxury that a working-class family moving up would purchase would be the services of a laundress: since laundry was expensive and difficult, few working-class families could maintain upper-middle-class standards of cleanliness. How often would you take baths if the water had to brought in from an outside pump, and then heated on the stove? How often would you wash your clothes if everything had to be washed out in the sink, if the fabrics were three times as heavy and the detergents one-third as powerful as the ones available today, and if as a result the laundry was a full day’s chore? Hand laundry was not a two hour a week task. Those who could afford the resources to maintain bourgeois styles of cleanliness flaunted it. White shirts, white dresses, white gloves are all powerful indications of wealth in turn of the century America. They said “I don’t have to do my own laundry and ,” and they said it loudly….

Well worth reading the whole thing. Most notably, his article is entitled “Slouching towards Utopia?” After spending two years living in Central America (1972-74), I came back to the United States with a realization that — with rare exceptions — we in the US don’t know what real poverty is anymore. De Long’s article underscores all the riches and opportunities that we take for granted these days, even at the lowest economic levels, whether that’s compared to our own past, to the third world, or even to Europe. There’s a reason why 10% of Mexico’s entire population lives in the US illegally.

Hat tip to Megan McArdle over at the Atlantic. ..bruce..

[UPDATED 08/30/07 - 1147 MDT]

My mom recalls when we moved as a family from San Diego to Chicago back in 1956 (I was 3 at the time):

I was very glad we only lived at Little Silver Lake in Illinois for two weeks - we had to use an outhouse, and I had to haul water 50 feet, heat it on the stove, and put it in that big tin tub to bathe you kids. After a couple of days of that, when the Big Four came home from school, I’d give them a bar of soap and tell them to go wash in the lake! And they loved staying there! Mom

The “Big Four” referring to my older siblings (heh). In other words, she was dealing with a family of 5 kids, all 10 and under, with no hot water or indoor toilets.

By the way, Little Silver Lake is my earliest memory. There was a slide of some kind that went into the lake. I remember going down the slide, going underwater (which I recall as being a bit dark and murky) — and then sitting there, wondering how I was going to get out. Someone came and lifted me out of the water. ..bruce..

28 Aug

Ten Postulates of Political Correctness

Baron Bodissey [nice pen name, since I happen to know where it comes from] does an excellent job of laying out what he calls the Ten Postulates of Political Correctness:

1. America is uniquely evil.
2. America is never justified in defending itself.
3. Illiterate people from poor societies are superior to Americans.
4. The Earth would be better off without human beings.
5. Making a profit is always immoral.
6. Differences between individuals or groups are unfair.
7. For Designated Victim Groups, strong feelings excuse all behavior.
8. Policies informed by Judæo-Christian principles are inherently suspect.
9. Conservatives are hypocrites; liberals are sincere.
10. There are no acts of God; there are only acts of Government.

He then goes on to explain what each means; read the whole thing. And feel free (in comments) to add any postulates you think the good Baron missed.

Hat tip to Conservative Grapevine. ..bruce..

27 Aug

A great ad

As an almost-native Californian (missed it by several months, though my mom and all my sisters are native Californians), I thought this ad was spot-on and quite funny (click to go to ad):

More ads are here. Hat tip to The Volokh Conspiracy. ..bruce..

24 Aug

Law and Order drinking game

OK, I don’t drink (at least, not alcohol), but as a long-time fan of Law and Order, I found this proposed drinking game both funny and dead-on. Example:

The Defense serves Jack or Cute Assistant DA with a Motion to Dismiss - Another very common one. Honestly, I’m a little shocked if I don’t see this one at least once per episode. These usually follow the granting of a Motion to Suppress (which generally cripples their case until Jack mastermind’s a so-crazy-it-just-might-work counter-attack).

I’ve added some of my own suggestions in the comments section for that post, including:

  • The cute assistant DA threatens a reluctant witness with prosecution if s/he doesn’t come forward to testify. Note that this usually only happens _after_ a successful motion-to-suppress.
  • The key witness changes his/her testimony while on the stand in court. If there’s more than 5 minutes left in the show, the change in testimony hurts the DA’s case; if there’s less than 5 minutes in the show, the change helps the DA’s case.
  • J. K. Simmons does a psych eval on someone claiming to be mentally incompetent and says, in effect, “Yeah, he’s faking it, and I can testify to that, but I can’t really prove it.”
  • B. D. Wong (on SVU) conducts (or orchestrates) an interview with a suspected sexual offender and gets him/her to blurt out some incriminating statement (or attack someone).
  • The judge at the bail hearing makes a quip or sarcastic comment just before setting (or denying) bail.
  • If a cop (retired or active), a judge, or a politician is somehow associated with the case itself, s/he turns out to be crooked or corrupt.
  • A black NYC councilman is outraged over the arrest of a black suspect; a second drink if that suspect then turns out to have an alibi and is set free; a third drink if a subsequent ‘unlawful arrest’ lawsuit is filed.
  • The victim(s) and/or initial suspect(s) are Asian, and Asian gang activity is immediately suspected.

Hat tip, believe it or not, to the Journal of the American Bar Association. ..bruce..

22 Aug

Banking Under Stress - Data Behind A Fear

The past 2 weeks have seen a great deal of activity in an otherwise very orderly and well structured financial system. As many of you know it’s a bit of a personal crusade to expose useful information that is hidden in plain sight, and expose it in a way that helps normal people gain insight on what is going on.

Some of you may have heard last week that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut a key bank rate - specifically to help provide cash to help keep the system from seizing up. If you listen to the financial press, you would think this is all because of sub-prime problems. While sub-prime may eventually be sited as the trigger for what will likely be a significant financial correction across many asset classes, it is wrongly being blamed now for all these problems.

In reality, for many years, everyone and their brother was loaning out money to anyone for any reason. A good portion of that was either a bad idea or outright fraud. Many good and decent people and businesses are going to be holding the bag. I present as my supporting evidence, the following information from the FDIC in March. For those of you who don’t know - the FDIC is the government body that regulates and insures banks. As an outcome of the problems surrounding the Great Depression of 1929, a wonderful set of rules were put in place that have given us tremendous banking stability since. It has really been the underpinning of the financial success of the USA, and it served as a model for the rest of the world.

As a result, a wealth of information is reported by the banks, and is made available to anyone with the patience and tenacity to dig it out. We specialize in creating tools that can sift though mountains of annoying data an boiling it down to understandable fact.

Below is a table from an initial run of a new tool that works with this data. It shows banks that are holding large amounts of loans that are now 90 days or greater past due. This means foreclosure time is fast approaching. The value is in dollars. Remember this is from March, long before this summer’s record setting rates of foreclosure.

Bank Name City State Loans 90 Days Delinquent First Note Second Note HELOC
Wells Fargo Bank, National Association Sioux Falls SD $3,809,000,000 $3,742,000,000 $11,000,000 $56,000,000
National City Bank Cleveland OH $1,049,565,000 $993,613,000 $9,309,000 $46,643,000
Citibank, National Association Las Vegas NV $806,000,000 $803,000,000 $3,000,000 $0
U.S. Bank National Association Cincinnati OH $629,303,000 $599,752,000 $9,758,000 $19,793,000
MidFirst Bank Oklahoma City OK $589,642,000 $589,642,000 $0 $0
EverBank Jacksonville FL $241,533,000 $241,533,000 $0 $0
SunTrust Bank Atlanta GA $187,579,000 $181,176,000 $5,549,000 $854,000
Regions Bank Birmingham AL $184,690,000 $139,482,000 $3,924,000 $41,284,000
Wachovia Bank, National Association Charlotte NC $184,000,000 $119,000,000 $25,000,000 $40,000,000
First Tennessee Bank, National Association Memphis TN $159,041,000 $134,438,000 $2,749,000 $21,854,000
LaSalle Bank Midwest National  Association Troy MI $138,737,000 $138,707,000 $30,000 $0
Washington Mutual Bank Henderson NV $120,079,000 $114,662,000 $228,000 $5,189,000
Bank of America, National Association Charlotte NC $107,771,000 $107,771,000 $0 $0
Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company Buffalo NY $94,476,000 $90,203,000 $4,273,000 $0
Fifth Third Bank Cincinnati OH $85,411,000 $70,607,000 $1,810,000 $12,994,000



To be fair, this picture is not complete. The largest problem is not going to be with the banks, but with the investment firms, retirement funds, pension plans and corporations that are holding the majority of the toxic loans - both mortgages and derivatives - that were written in the past 4 years.

More information as we get this new mashup application on line.