First off, sorry to all for not posting for such a good stretch of time.
If you have been reading my posts here, you know that I have been anticipating some significant changes in the status quo of the US economy. Last summer I started to get the notion that things were out of control on a number of fronts, including the stock market. I had good reason to be concerned. I personally saw nearly $250,000 evaporate courtesy of the stock market in 2000 / 2001, and was in no mood to start rebuilding retirement accounts and investments again.
I was so convinced that something was going to happen, I took every last penny I had for investment and put it in cash. At that time I considered myself a bit of a crackpot. My conscience told me I should tell people I care about what I had done and why. I am sure most of them though I was going to miss out. Months went by and yep, I was missing some good sized appreciation. But for the life of me I could not understand the fundamentals of why the market would go higher, when there was an increasing downdraft on it. I make it a point to never again invest in something I don’t understand the basic mechanics of.
On February 27th we had a small rout in the markets. It was impressive to watch, but its not the correction I am expecting. That one will take several weeks, and will be at least 20% of the current index. That means the Dow back in the 10,000 range. I still expect it within the next few months.
The reasons behind my expectations - massive leverage in the markets, the break down of the Yen carry trade, and run-away inflation in China. I know I am probably wrong, but lets see how it turns out.
A Wall Street Journal article surveying research on the neurobiology of love reports on the work of Dr. Helen Fisher. Love triggers the dopamine system which is also involved in drug addiction.
Dr. Fisher has studied love by looking at people’s brains using magnetic resonance imaging machines. A recent study also looked at 15 subjects who were deeply in love but were nursing broken hearts. While in the scanner, they viewed “neutral” pictures of someone they knew but for whom they didn’t have intense romantic feelings. Then they were shown a picture of their beloved.
Those suffering the aftermath of failed relationships have more than just the dopamine system active.
Compared with the neutral photos, a lover’s picture triggers the dopamine system in the brain — the same system associated with pleasure and addiction. But the brain images of those scorned in love also give us clues as to why the breakdown of a relationship can trigger serious health problems. The subjects dealing with failed relationships showed activity in the dopamine system — suggesting they maintained intense feelings for their loved one. But they also showed activity in brain regions associated with risk taking, controlling anger and obsessive compulsive problems. Notably, the scans showed activity in one part of the brain linked with physical pain.
The article reports on an Italian study that found that love causes the neurotransmitter serotonin to drop to the level found in those with obsessive compulsive disorders. Might obsessive compulsive disorders (OCD) be a side effect of the brain’s tendency to fall in love? Do people who fall more deeply in love face a greater risk of OCD?…
Hat tip to FuturePundit, one of the best science blogs out there. ..bruce..
[*] Unless, of course, you’re addicted to spuds. Good luck getting either song out of your mind now; one of the great earbugs of all time.
Mike Morton, a long-time friend and colleague and a Master of Anagrams, send me a link to a great story about a group of IT engineers dealing with a CEO who just didn’t understand Brooks’ Law:
After failing to win several arguments on this point, the engineers became exasperated and decided to hold an intervention with the CEO. They each bought a copy of Brooks’ book, brought the CEO into a conference room, and stacked up the copies of the book, telling him, It is extremely urgent that you read this book. We’ve bought you many copies so that you might read it faster. They made their point.
I can think of several times in the past 15 years where I would like to have used that approach. ..bruce..
Pat Dollard has been traveling to Iraq since late 2004, filming a documentary — “Young Americans” — about the actual soldiers serving over there and what they live with on a day-to-day basis. In so doing, Dollard has put his own life in danger on an ongoing basis.
You’ll get a sense of that with this latest clip from the film, titled “Living with Snipers”. Watch your audio level — the language at times is pretty much what you’d expect from young soldiers in an active war zone.
Full disclosure: twice I’ve donated to Dollard’s film, modest amounts both times. I plan to donate more. ..bruce..
Valleywag has a link to this YouTube video that appears to be a 1993 CBC Prime Time news report on “Internet”. It’s well worth watching, both for the unintended humor to the viewpoint of what the Internet would provide. Enjoy. ..bruce..
