And Still I Persist

Given that Colorado is, for the second time in as many weeks, in a declared state of emergency — and I, of course, am in the declared state of Colorado — I thought this might be a good time to join in the discussion that’s been going on around the blogosphere during the past year on emergency preparedness.

To start with, my bona fides. First, I’m a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (the Mormons), which has been advocating emergency preparedness far longer than most people in or out of the LDS Church realize. Those outside of the LDS Church tend to think of it originating in the 1950s or 60s in a pre-apocalyptic/Cold War fervor. Those inside the LDS Church tend to think of it originating in the 1930s in response to the Great Depression. The truth is that Brigham Young, all the way back in the mid- to late 1800s, counseled Mormon settlers in Utah that they should set aside a year’s supply of grain as a hedge against crop failures and other natural or economic disasters, rather than selling that grain to buy non-essential luxuries for their homes and families.

Second, I’ve personally been through a variety of natural disasters:

• I was living in southeast Houston (Clear Lake City) in 1979 when Tropical Storm Claudette came through and dropped over three feet of rain in 24 hours. At that time I was staying in the Nassau Bay Resort Motor Inn across the street from the main entrance to the Johnson Space Center, not having moved my family out from San Diego yet; I remember watching sheets — literal sheets — of water fall from the sky. I also remember going out a few days later to help clean up homes that had had 4 feet of water sitting in them for 48 hours.
• We were living in the mountains east of Soquel, California (south of Santa Cruz) in October 1989 when the Loma Prieta Earthquake hit, the epicenter being about 3 miles due east of our house. Our house came through pretty well, but the region was generally devestated and/or disrupted.
• We were living in San Diego (Rancho Penasquitos) in the mid-1990s when a brushfire started on the southwest side of Black Mountain and started moving towards the eastern edge — where we lived on Yazoo Street. There was one ridge (and two other streets) between us and the fire; tanker planes were coming in a few hundred feet (or less) above our house to drop water on the far side of the ridge. I had two of our daughters up on the roof, watering it down, while my wife Sandra and I loaded up our minivan with essential papers and our 72-hour kits. We were prepared to leave as soon as the fire crested the ridge — which, fortunately, it never did.
• We were living in DC in September 2003 when Hurricane Isabel came up the East Coast and plowed right through Virginia, DC and Maryland, causing widespread power outages and shortages of goods. Our house was without power for five (5) full days, all during high heat and humidity.
• And, of course, we now find ourselves here in Colorado in the midst of what may well be a record snowfall over an 8- to 10-day period, coming in the form of two major storms just a week apart.

Third, I work in a very volatile industry: information technology. I was caught off guard by the first Tech Crash (back in 1988-1990) and scrambled for a while in finding work. However, becuase of that and other experiences (including helping with two software startups), I saw the second Tech Crash (2000-2004) coming and was fortunate enough to be in a line of work that did not suffer the same impact.

Fourth, while living in Washington DC, I served as a member of the bishopric of the Chevy Chase Ward (LDS congregation). Our geographic boundaries covered northwest DC, from Western Avenue down to the Mall and from the Potomac over to 16th Street NW. I had responsibility for emergency preparedness plans for the members of our congregation — and our ward boundaries included the majority of foreign embassies (including the Israeli embassy), many Federal government buildings (including the Vice-President’s residence, the State Department, and the working HQ for the Department of Homeland Security over on Nebraska Avenue), and key NGO headquarters (such as the World Bank). This was all post-9/11, so I had to plan for actual terrorist attacks within our ward boundaries and what our emergency response plans would be in such a situation.

As far as personal and family preparedness for the members of the congregation went, I had to come up with an approach that would work in an urban setting and across a variety of physical and economic settings. I based in on the general approach that the LDS Church recommends - which involves a variety of areas (education, finance, etc.), not just food storage or other emergency needs — while emphasizing simple, practical, short-term steps and strategies based on personal goals and concerns.

The result is this handout (PDF, 107KB), which I’ve revised several times and will continue to revise. There are a number of LDS-specific references in there, which you’re free to ignore; the most valuable part for most people may be the one-page checklist on page 2. As noted on the document, you are free to copy, adapt and distribute this document for non-commercial purposes. It’s not the end-all and be-all of personal and family preparedness, but it does provide a good starting-off point.

I’ll welcome feedback and suggestions for the handout; as I said, I plan to continue to revise it. ..bruce..

[UPDATE: 12/29/06] Deirdre Wallace found a typo in the handout (on page 2); now corrected.

Well, what a few days ago was looking like a day or two of “light snow” has turned into a prolonged storm (in two waves) that may end up leaving as much snow as the Christmas Blizzard did a week ago. As noted, we’re facing two storms; the first is expected to leave somewhere between 8″ to 18″ through Friday morning; the second, coming Friday night, could leave anywhere from 6″ to 12″, depending upon what the low pressure currently moving towards the Texas Panhandle does.

Here’s the officlal warning:

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST FRIDAY… … WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON…

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST FRIDAY.

SNOW…HEAVY AT TIMES…WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 INCHES…WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT HEAVY SNOW… ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS…COULD REDEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

By the way, we live on the north-facing slope of the “Palmer Divide” mentioned above.
Meanwhile, as of yesterday afternoon, I had the large circular parking area outside our front door and garage completely cleared out. It now has 2″ to 4″ of snow on it, with more accumulating rapidly:

I may need to go out and snowblow the top of the driveway so that Emily can make it home tonight. No rest for the wicked and all that…. ..bruce..

The Vance Integral Edition (VIE) is one of the more remarkable publishing feats of the last 50 years. It is a 44-volume set of the complete works of Jack Vance, corrected and restored (as far as possible) to the author’s original manuscripts and titles with the direct help and cooperation of Jack Vance and his family. The VIE was created entirely by volunteer labor and financed primarily by private subscription (as well as support from the Paul G. Allen Family Foundation). The VIE sets came in two editions: the Reader’s Set ($1500 plus shipping) and the Deluxe Set ($3000 plus shipping). While the VIE project itself is now complete, and the organization has shut down, there is now an effort to reprint the VIE in paperback format. I cannot do the whole story justice, particularly since I was merely a subscriber, not a volunteer, but here is a detailed account of VIE history from one of the participants.

Jack Vance (1916 - ) is one of the best and most prolific (>60 books) American authors of the past half century. Given that, he remains remarkably obscure, except to a dwindling number of science fiction and fantasy readers, most of whom (like me) are older and first encountered his work in the 50s, 60s and 70s. My own introduction was a paperback edition of The Dying Earth (VIE title: Mazirian the Magician) that belonged to my brother Chip and that I read sometime in the 1960s.

I read several other Vance novels and short stories in the intervening years, but had no idea of the extent of Vance’s work until receiving a copy of The Work of Jack Vance from my good friend Jerry Hewett, the principal author. It was Jerry who also notified me about the VIE project. I subscribed for a Reader’s Set, paid my deposit, then sent the balance in two payments as the VIE was shipped in two ‘waves’, each containing 22 volumes (though not in numerical order). I read all the volumes in each ‘wave’ as it arrived.

I have now undertaken to re-read the entire VIE in order and review the novels and short stories in each volume. The VIE volumes are in approximate chronological order of original publication of the novels and stories included. This review is a bit quixotic, since the VIE project has now ended; there is no way to buy a new VIE set, and I suspect you would have a hard time convincing an existing VIE set owner to part with it (there were only 600 sets printed). My 21-year-old daughter Emily has already asked if she can have my VIE set when I die. (I said yes.)

But both Vance and the VIE project volunteers deserve the attention; Vance, for the depth and breadth of his work over the past 60 years; the VIE project volunteers for successfully completing a project that by all rights should not have succeeded. Since much of what I do professionally involves troubled or failed projects, I marvel at what these people accomplished, period, not to mention that they did it all for free. My only regret is that I did not volunteer as well. ..bruce..

Uh oh; here we go again. From the National Weather Service, as of 4:30 am this morning:

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS INCLUDES THE DENVER METRO AREA AND ALL THE URBAN CORRIDOR. ACCUMULATIONS…IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES MAY OCCUR…WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY INCREASE TO SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS…ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS.

REMEMBER…A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER EVENT IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR THAT COULD IMPACT TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNING CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

This means that I need to finish getting the snowpack off of the area in front of our garage before this storm hits and adds to it. Sigh.

And I hear coyotes howling somewhere outside as I type this. If I were them, I’d howl, too. ..bruce..

Over the past few years, the mainstream media has done a fair amount of sniffing over the arriviste mob of bloggers and how they aren’t real journalist, while ignoring their own propensity for bias, sloppiness, and logical fallacies. This made it all the more, ah, delicious to read one the best, most methodical examples of investigative reporting I’ve seen in years by Scott at DallasFood.org. The topic: Noka Chocolate, which appear to be the most expensive chocolate you can buy (retail prices for small boxes work out to over $1000/lb.). Scott, who obviously knows his chocolate, does a very methodical investigation that shows…well, go read the article for yourself.

Hat tip to The Consumerist.  ..bruce..